Load Shedding Looms Amidst Winter Concerns in South Africa
Natalie Nyathi
As South Africa prepares for winter, Eskom, the country’s power utility, has warned that load-shedding is likely to occur in the coming weeks. According to Eskom’s latest 52-week outlook, the utility is projected to be more than 2,001 MW short of the capacity needed to meet demand and reserves from June 16 to July 20, 2025.
Eskom’s winter outlook indicates that load-shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages stay below 13,000 MW. However, recent data shows that unplanned outages have already exceeded this threshold. In its latest power alert, Eskom reported that unplanned outages averaged 14,644 MW from May 30 to June 5, 2025. This figure represents an increase of 2,315 MW compared to the same period last year and is 1,644 MW above the critical limit set by Eskom for winter.
Experts have cautioned that the ongoing fragility of the power system serves as a reminder of the challenges ahead, emphasizing the need for continued monitoring and proactive measures to prevent further disruptions.
Eskom’s outlook for the winter period indicates that, in a worst-case scenario, the utility may need to implement up to 21 days of stage 2 load-shedding. The likelihood of this scenario arises from the significant shortfall of over 2,001 MW in capacity. The weeks leading up to June 16 are marked as orange, suggesting that Eskom will be between 1,001 MW and 2,000 MW short during that time.
Earlier this year, Eskom was compelled to implement stage 2 load-shedding from May 13 to May 15 due to delays in returning several generation units from maintenance, compounded by additional breakdowns. Energy expert Matthew Cruise noted that the sudden need for load-shedding is concerning, especially as demand is expected to rise with cooler weather.
As of mid-May, unplanned losses reached 15,680 MW, exceeding the 15,000 MW threshold that would lead to stage 2 load-shedding. Cruise warned that South Africans should prepare for load-shedding up to stage 4 this winter.
With the grid under increasing strain, Eskom’s stability remains uncertain. The coming weeks will be crucial as the utility navigates the complexities of demand, capacity, and operational failures, all while the threat of load-shedding looms large.
